Paper prices rose sharply, market outlook continues to be bullish
On March 27, the ex-factory price of corrugated paper in many places exceeded the 5,000 yuan / ton mark, and many paper mills raised the ex-factory price, increasing by more than 5% daily. In addition, double-offset paper and tracing paper have seen huge increases recently. Many companies such as Minfeng Specialty Paper have increased their tracing paper products by 1,000 yuan / ton since March 26. Analysts told reporters that the amount of foreign waste has shrunk by 75.35% compared with the same period in 2017, which has led to a sharp rise in raw materials. In addition, the monthly increase of international pulp is more than 10-30 US dollars / ton, and the auxiliary materials such as titanium dioxide have increased recently. The above factors have caused the price of paper to rise sharply.
Substantial price increase
Recently, paper prices have increased significantly. According to statistics, since late March, more than 30 cardboard mills have announced increases in ex-factory prices. On March 27, four cardboard mills in Changsha Liyong Paper Products Packaging, Wuhan Yadu Packaging Printing, Wuhan Longfa Packaging, and Hubei Hengda Packaging raised their cardboard prices by 5% -6%. Dongguan Honglong and many other packaging companies issued a notice of suspension of orders. On March 27, the price of corrugated paper in multiple regions exceeded the 5,000 yuan / ton mark. Among them, Dongguan Nine Dragon-A 75g ex-factory price was 5,000 yuan / ton; Jiangsu Lee & Man 60g corrugated ex-factory price was 5020 yuan / ton; Shandong Century Sunshine The ex-factory price of 60-70g corrugated paper is 5,150 yuan / ton.
In terms of special paper, varieties such as double-adhesive paper, tracing paper, and electrostatic photocopying base paper all showed a large increase. Starting from April 1, the prices of double-coated paper and xerographic base paper products (including tax) under Asia Pacific Senbo will be increased by 200 yuan / ton. Minfeng Specialty Paper has increased its tracing paper products by 1,000 yuan / ton since March 26. Starting from March 26, the price of tracing paper base paper in Wuxi Sunray Paper increased by 1,000 yuan / ton, and the price of tracing paper products increased by 1,000 yuan / ton. From the quotation point of view, the price of double adhesive tape is around 8,000 yuan / ton, and some regions have exceeded 8,500 yuan / ton. Taking Suzhou Jinhuasheng as an example, the company's latest offer on March 27 was 8,600 yuan / ton.
Analysts told reporters that the rise in multi-category paper prices was mainly related to rising raw materials. According to the data published by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, 68 companies in the first eight batches of 2018 approved a total of 6,732,200 tons of waste paper imports, a significant decrease of 75.35% compared to the same period in 2017. In addition, since March, the international coniferous pulp and broadleaf pulp prices have both increased, with an increase of 10-30 US dollars / ton. Excipients have also risen significantly. Taking titanium dioxide as an example, it has continued to rise since March, further increasing the production costs of paper mills.
Is expected to maintain
Regarding the market trend of paper prices, the national waste price in 2018 will continue to be severely affected by the management of foreign waste import quotas. The national waste price center is expected to rise, but the possibility of a "roller coaster" similar to that in 2017 is less likely. It is expected that the national waste price will In the range of 2000-2500 yuan / ton. Driven by the continued price of waste paper, the price of corrugated cardboard will also remain high.
In 2018, the concentration of the paper industry has further increased. Among them, the concentration of copper paper is as high as 95%, and the concentration of double offset paper is more than 60%. The leading synergy effect is significant. On the supply side, there is no new capacity for coated paper before 2020, and the new capacity of double offset paper is concentrated in leading paper companies. Due to strict environmental protection approval, the release of new capacity is significantly lower than expected. In the future, the endowment of wood pulp resources will be more prominent, leading enterprises will benefit significantly.
While the rise in paper prices has brought rich results for leading papermaking companies, the profits of downstream packaging companies have been affected. According to Baichuan Information, the national average price of corrugated paper in 2017 was 4,072 yuan / ton, which was 51% higher than the average price of 2,697 yuan / ton in 2016. At present, the latest price of corrugated paper has exceeded 5,000 yuan / ton, and the profits of downstream enterprises have been greatly affected by this. Take Zhongxing Fungus Industry as an example: the company's operating income in 2017 was 740 million yuan, an increase of 26.46% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 142 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.24%. The decline in performance was mainly due to the fact that in order to meet market demand during the reporting period, the company changed from the large packaging method to the medium packaging method. Due to environmental factors, the cost of the paper industry increased, which led to an increase in the unit packaging cost of edible fungi.